TRUMP’S FOSSIL FUEL REVIVAL “DRILL BABY DRILL”: WHO WINS, WHO LOSES?

USA President Trump’s fossil fuels’advocacy roll’s back climate regulations, decouples from international Paris Agreement cooperation & dismantles Inflation Reduction Act of US$527 billion in tax incentives for low-carbon technologies, which raised US$110 bil in clean energy projects with more than 60% coming from foreign investment.

As the 47th President of the United States returns to the helm of U.S. politics, President 2.0 Donald Trump has unveiled an aggressive agenda to revive fossil fuel dominance, dismantle climate regulations, and decouple the U.S. from international climate commitments. As the nation braces for a seismic policy shift, questions arise about who stands to benefit—and at what cost.

Fossil Fuel Giants Rally at Mar-a-Lago

In May 2024, as the world watched the prelude to Trump’s anticipated 2024 presidential campaign, The Washington Post uncovered a significant gathering of fossil fuel magnates at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. The dinner meeting, attended by 20 top US oil industry executives, was asked to raise over $1 billion for Trump’s campaign. Attendees included influential figures such as Mike Sabel of Venture Global, Jack Fusco of Cheniere Energy, and representatives from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Continental Resources, and Occidental Petroleum.

The timing and symbolism of this meeting were unmistakable. ExxonMobil and Chevron, America’s largest energy firms, had already reported their most profitable year in a decade in 2023. Trump’s promises of new offshore drilling, expedited permits, and relaxed regulations signal an even greater windfall for these companies.

Dismantling Climate Progress

Former President Joe Biden’s administration had made significant strides in combating climate change. With over 100 new environmental regulations, Biden’s policies aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, reduce air pollution, and conserve public lands and waters. The US$527 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was central to these efforts, incentivizing low-carbon technologies such as electric vehicles, solar and wind power, and hydrogen fuel. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has significantly boosted foreign investment in the USA’s low-carbon green technologies. Within a year of its passing, over US$110 billion in clean energy projects were announced, with more than 60% of these investments coming from foreign businesses. The IRA’s tax credits and incentives have made the US an attractive destination for companies looking to invest in clean energy, transport, and manufacturing.

Trump’s approach, however, stands in stark contrast – declaring climate change a “hoax”.

he plans to dismantle the IRA, ending tax incentives for green technologies and reversing Biden’s freeze on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits. This rollback threatens to undermine the U.S.’s position as a global leader in climate action, leaving nations like Australia and those in the Asia-Pacific poised to capitalize on advanced manufacturing and clean energy investments.

Breaking Away from the Paris Agreement

In a controversial move, the U.S. under Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement once again. This international treaty aims to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Joining Yemen, Iran, and Libya as non-participants, the U.S.—the world’s second-largest carbon emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 6,343 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2023—would abandon its commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Such a withdrawal, effective one year after notifying the United Nations, could severely impact global efforts to curb rising temperatures.

OurWorldinData.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions | CC BY

Winners and Losers in a Fossil Fuel Renaissance

While oil giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron prepare for increased profits, the broader implications of Trump’s fossil fuel revival raise concerns. Environmental regulations weakened under his administration from 2017 to 2021 led to higher greenhouse gas emissions and the degradation of public lands. A similar trajectory now could exacerbate global warming, making the 1.5°C target virtually unattainable.

Yet, economic opportunities may emerge for nations outside the U.S. With Trump’s dismantling of clean energy incentives, countries like Australia could attract investments in advanced manufacturing for green technologies. The geopolitical shift from trade imbalances and higher US tariffs, could return to the Asia-Pacific region, with increased demand for its renewable energy manufacturing.

A Future at a Crossroads

As greenhouse gas emissions rise globally—from 35 billion tons when the Paris Agreement was adopted to an expected 41 billion tons in 2024—the stakes for climate action have never been higher. Global average temperatures have exceeded the 1.5°C threshold for a full calendar year, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated efforts.

Trump’s fossil fuel agenda offers a stark choice: prioritize short-term economic gains for oil giants or invest in a sustainable future.

For now, it seems the U.S. is veering toward the former, leaving the world to grapple with the consequences of America’s retreat from climate leadership.

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