We got lucky this time — but luck is not a national energy strategy.
PICTURE this.
Cyclone Fina strengthens earlier than forecast, dragging heavy seas and gale-force winds across the Top End. The inbound fuel tanker charged with supplying Darwin and northern Australia for the weeks ahead misses its narrow weather window by mere hours. Port authorities close the harbour; safety protocols, no exceptions.
At first, it’s a nuisance, but then the cracks appear. And in less than 48 hours, the nation discovers just how vulnerable its energy backbone really is.
Fuel distributors begin rationing deliveries. Remote communities (already stretched thin) are warned that diesel for clinics, generators, refrigeration and water systems is “unavailable until further notice.”
Freight companies pause operations, as supermarkets prepare for empty shelves because road trains can’t refuel. Refrigerated transport becomes the first major casualty.
By Day 3, Darwin Airport initiates emergency protocols as Jet A-1 stocks fall below safe operating minimums. Airlines cancel flights. FIFO rosters are thrown into disarray. Mining operations slow. Tens of millions in production evaporate daily.
Emergency services begin quietly scaling down non-critical operations to preserve what little fuel remains, while ambulance and police fleets rotate vehicles to extend their usable hours. Even hospital backup generators move into conservation mode.
Then shit gets real…
Then Defence feels the squeeze. RAAF Darwin halts training sorties. Maritime patrol windows are cut. Mechanised units reduce field readiness.
So essentially, a strategic northern footprint, essential to national sovereignty and regional stability, becomes sluggish simply because one tanker missed one tide.
By the end of the week, NT leaders consider statewide rationing. Supply chains falter. Tourism stalls. Agriculture hesitates. Every corner of the economy bends under a single point of failure.
All of this… not from conflict, sabotage or cyberattack… but from a routine early-season cyclone.
We got lucky. But luck is not a national energy strategy.
A Thought Piece Sparked by a Clear-Eyed Warning
This reflection — this entire thought piece — is inspired by a powerful and sobering analysis published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (great read, John Coyne). The author, writing with a calm but piercing clarity, laid out a reality we too often avoid acknowledging: Australia’s fuel architecture is acutely vulnerable and built on assumptions that no longer hold.
It’s important to note, the article wasn’t alarmist. It was responsible.
Not political, nor ideological, simply factual and the kind of grounded truth-telling we need more of.
John’s framing was the spark for this piece, and it deserves warm acknowledgment: thank you for sounding the alarm with precision, courage and national-interest focus. It is exactly the kind of analysis Australia needs right now.
A Ripple Effect Across Australia, beyond the Top End
Many Australians may read this and think: “Well, that’s Darwin. That’s remote. That’s the north.”
But energy doesn’t stay regional, and fuel disruption doesn’t stay local.
What we need to understand is a bottleneck in the Top End becomes a bloody serious bottleneck for the entire country.
Here’s how the ripple effect might unfold:
FIFO operations paused in the NT cause mine supply delays and contract breaches in WA and QLD.
Aircraft grounding in Darwin forces national flight rescheduling, pushing up ticket prices nationwide.
Road freight interruptions delay produce, goods and essential supplies into SA, VIC and NSW.
Defence slowdowns in the far north weaken Australia’s strategic posture across the Indo-Pacific arc.
And given the industry’s already thin inventories, nationwide fuel price spikes would hit within days.
Please understand, this isn’t a Top End story… it’s an Australia story.
When Geopolitics and Nature Collide
There are two risks Australia simply cannot ignore. One is geopolitical, and the other is environmental and, really, every Australian should be a little concerned.
A skirmish in the South China Sea would cut our fuel pretty much overnight, and we need to be candid without being alarmist on this topic. Australia relies heavily on tankers that sail through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, two of the world’s most strategically tense maritime corridors.
A skirmish in the South China Sea could cut off Australia’s fuel supply overnight — instantly, completely.
If even a skirmish, a restricted zone, or an escalated naval incident occurred (or even if shipping lanes were disrupted or if major powers miscalculated), our fuel supply from Singapore and regional refineries would be interrupted instantly.
Not slowed down. Stopped. Diesel, petrol, jet fuel, marine fuel and aviation turbine fuel would simply not arrive, and we certainly cannot afford an energy system dependent on waterways we do not control during an era of rising regional tension.
So here’s the other thing. Whether you believe in climate change or not, natural disasters will happen.
The climate debate will continue. But one truth is beyond ideology: Nature doesn’t care about opinions. Cyclones don’t check voting intentions. Floods don’t consider political leanings. Heatwaves don’t pause for belief systems, and bushfires certainly don’t discriminate world view.
Australia’s geography guarantees that extreme events — whether driven by climate change or natural variability — will keep coming, and every cyclone, flood, heatwave or bushfire has the potential to overwhelm our already fragile fuel and energy systems.
So, this is a resilience debate and not a climate debate.
A Nation Divided When Unity Is Needed Most
This near miss occurs at a moment when Australia’s political leadership is sharply divided on energy transition.
The Liberal Party’s decision to abandon the net-zero by 2050 target has fractured its base and unsettled investors. Their argument: prioritise affordability and reliability above all else.
The counterargument, echoed by industry, scientists and global markets: abandoning long-term commitments weakens investor confidence, jeopardises renewable and critical-mineral investment, and undermines sovereign energy capability.
Labor continues advancing renewables, hydrogen and electrification, but not yet at the speed or scale required to shift our strategic exposure. And that’s not good enough.
Put simply, Energy Security cannot be a tug-of-war between parties. It cannot be a hostage to ideology.
Energy Security underpins everything: hospitals, defence, transport, communications, food supply and national resilience, so we’ve got to find a way to bloody well get it right.
The Pathway Out of Fragility
Cyclone Fina gave us a glimpse of “what might have been”, don’t you reckon? But it also gave us a chance to change direction before a crisis chooses the timing for us.
I believe Australia needs a strategy built on four complementary pillars (possibly more, but four will do for now for this exercise):
Electrify what we can aggressively: Every electrified bus, car, warehouse, freight route and industrial process reduces pressure on imported liquid fuels.
Build Green Hydrogen at scale, urgently: Hydrogen is more than a decarbonisation tool, it is an energy-sovereignty tool, and I’m not interested in copping any bullets from the naysayers (they’ll bounce off). We have no choice but to forge ahead with Green Hydrogen. Produced here. Stored here. Used here. My mantra on this one is “use it where you make it”. And this is independent of vulnerable shipping lanes and geopolitics.
HYDROGEN IN THE CHASM: CAN GLOBAL GREEN ENERGY DREAMS BECOME REALITY
Unlock Australia’s rapidly emerging biofuel opportunity: I’ve seen enough, and some incredible tech either breaking through the barriers or desperately wanting to break through. This is one of the most exciting frontiers in our energy landscape. From forestry residues and agricultural waste to advanced algae-based fuels, ammonia… Australia is poised to produce jet fuel, diesel and maritime fuels onshore — renewable, sovereign and cost-competitive. Biofuels offer something rare: a pathway to decarbonise liquid fuels and reduce our dependence on foreign refineries. They also happen to create regional jobs, new revenue for farmers, and new export industries. This is a strategic lever, it isn’t fringe innovation any more.
Rebuild national resilience through strategic reserves and sovereign manufacturing: Australia holds the resources the world wants and needs: critical minerals, vast renewable energy resources, agricultural mass, biomass, intellectual talent, engineering excellence, space for industry.
We have everything required to become a clean-tech manufacturing powerhouse, producing our own electrolysers, batteries, hydrogen systems, biofuels, advanced materials and more.
For decades, we exported raw commodities and imported finished products. That model is over. If we embrace sovereign manufacturing, we can secure our own needs and become an energy-exporting nation of immense global value.
The Choice Before Us…
We can keep rolling the dice, hoping the next cyclone, geopolitical flare-up or supply-chain failure gives us another lucky escape.
Or we can act.
We can build a sovereign energy system that strengthens resilience, accelerates renewables, scales biofuels, unleashes green hydrogen, rebuilds manufacturing and ensures Australia never again relies on luck to keep the lights on, planes flying and national defence operational.
The window is open, but it won’t stay open forever.
Let’s not wait for disaster to learn the lesson Cyclone Fina tried to teach us gently.
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