Reflecting on bp’s Energy Outlook 2019 and 2023 reports, how does India fare with fossil fuel-derived energy from coal and gas?
In BP’s Energy Outlook 2019, they predicted that India would continue its then projected, fossil fuel consumption of 79% till 2040.
In 2022, nuclear generated 3.1% of India’s electricity. But with the recent 26 February announcement from The Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) to significantly bolster the country’s atomic nuclear energy capacity by adding 18 more reactors – 8 currently under construction with a total capacity of 6800 MW, plus pre-project activities are underway for 10 reactors with a total capacity of 7000 Mwe, would increase capacity totaling 13.8 gigawatts by the year 2032. This now brings to question India’s fossil fuel dependency. These new additions would bring India’s total number of nuclear power reactors to 32.
In bp Energy Outlook 2023 – the times they are a ‘fast’ changing.
India’s energy transition involves a shift toward renewables, growth in natural gas, and a decline in coal. Nuclear power remains a significant part of the equation, contributing to the country’s energy security and sustainability.
Under bp’s Energy Outlook 2023 scenarios of Accelerated, Net Zero, and New Momentum, they project that India’s primary energy consumption growth across all scenarios will more than double by 2050, due to population growth, industrialization, and economic prosperity. The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 33% by 2050. But fossil fuel natural gas will increase from 5% in 2019 to 7-11% in 2050 due to demand in heavy road transport and industry. Electricity generated from solar and wind power will contribute to 57% to 95% of that growth. By 2050, electricity generation significantly surpasses 2019 levels, with solar and wind power contributing 57% to 95% of that growth. Solar and wind installed capacities reach 1.3-2.2 TW and 0.3-1.2 TW, respectively.
While India has marginal uranium reserves, thorium, a non-fissile material, is available in abundance to feed India’s long-term nuclear program goals. However significant investment and technological advancements are required for fuel cycle development.
But India faces challenges, similar to most concerns globally. Of safety and security concerns with controversies and protests arising related to land ownership, plant locations, and the safety and security of nuclear power plants. Ensuring the safety of power plants during natural or man-made disasters remains a critical issue. We all worry about past catastrophes of the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the United States and the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union. And more recently the 2011 Fukushima Japan nuclear disaster triggered by an earthquake and subsequent tsunami 13 years ago, which still dominates the psyche of the Japanese today, as the largest civilian nuclear accident since Chernobyl.
Incompatibility with International Conventions of civil liability law and international conventions limits the provision of foreign technology and collaboration in the nuclear sector. As well as cost overruns and time delays, climate change is playing a part.
But equally, India does have unique advantages in achieving their nuclear energy goals. With over 60% of the population under the age of 30, fluent in English, and digitally savvy, the country has a skilled workforce ready to contribute to the tech sector. Plus, India’s 1.43 bil population has a 94% literacy rate well-prepared to engage with and advance within the digital economy.
The country’s focus on self-reliance – Atmanirbhar Bharat – is evident in the design, construction, and operation of indigenous reactors by NPCIL.
